非捆绑性冲突管理战略的选择:第三方调停还是双边协商

Selecting a Non-Binding Strategy of Conflict Management: Mediation or Negotiation?

武力冲突中的冲突双方在选择第三方调停和双边协商这两种相似的冲突管理战略时遵循着相反的战略考量。当前,以和平方式管理冲突成为结束武力冲突的主流。而在冲突管理的诸多战略中,相较于捆绑性冲突管理战略,非捆绑性冲突管理战略又更为普及。但是,同属于非捆绑性战略,为什么有些冲突双方选择了第三方调停,而有些冲突双方选择了双边协商?这是当前研究中未曾得到系统回答的问题。从国际关系研究中不确定性机制的视角看,冲突管理开始时冲突双方对对方继续冲突决心的不确定性水平高低是导致冲突双方在第三方调停和双边协商的选择上产生分野的直接原因。冲突双方力量差距、冲突中冲突双方政权更替情况以及冲突已产生的沉没成本是测量和评估冲突双方对对方继续冲突决心的不确定性水平的三个重要因素。当冲突双方力量差距较小,冲突双方中一方以上发生或即将发生政权更替以及冲突管理开始前冲突的高沉没成本,都将使冲突双方倾向于选择第三方调停;反之,则选择双边协商的可能性更大。

The selection of mediation and negotiation which are similar in practice follows opposite strategic motives in the conflict management process.Compared with achieving a decisive victory,the peaceful management of the conflict serves as the mainstream in the violent conflict resolution process.And within a number of conflict management strategies,the non-binding strategies are more prevalent than the binding strategies in practice.However,while both of them belong to the non-binding conflict management strategy,why do some of disputants select mediation while others turn to negotiation instead?Furthermore,why mediation,which is more costly,is more prevalent than negotiation,which is less costly?These are the questions which are not given a systematic study in the existing research.Through introducing the uncertainty mechanism into the analysis,this article argues that the different levels of disputants uncertainty regarding opponents resolve to continue fighting contributes to the different selections of mediation or negotiation in the conflict management process.Three influential factors are applied to capture the level of uncertainty:the power disparity between the disputants,the change of leadership between the disputants,and the sunk cost of the conflict when conflict management process initiates.By compiling the International Conflict Management(ICM)1945-2003 dataset for the analysis,I find that mediation is more likely when the power disparity is small,and there is or will be a leadership change during the conflict,as well as a large sunk cost of the conflict.Otherwise,the selection of negotiation is more likely.Based on the empirical analysis,the article discusses the results with case studies jointly,which renders important policy implications to the relevant research further.