变权组合预测模型在郑西高铁某路桥过渡段不均匀沉降监测中的应用

The Application of the Variable Weight Combination Prediction Model in the Monitoring of the Uneven Settlement of the Transition Section of Zhengzhou-Xi'an High-speed Railway

路桥过渡段不均匀沉降是造成高速铁路行车安全重要隐患之一.以郑州-西安高速铁路某路桥过渡段为例,在分析不均匀沉降机理基础上基于灰色GM(1,1)模型和二次曲线趋势外推法建立了变权组合预测模型,并利用针对该过渡段设计的监测方案所获取的沉降监测数据进行验证.结果表明:该模型在后5个监测期内,D_1、D_2监测点实测值和预测值最大差值是0.20 mm,预测误差平方最大值为0.048,满足预测精度要求.未来3年内监测点D_1、D_2累计沉降量分别为7.55 mm和15.31 mm,在无其他特殊因素作用下,该路桥过渡段的不均匀沉降将继续保持稳定状态,不会影响行车安全.

The uneven settlement of road and bridge itd is one of the important hidden dangers of high-speed railway traffic safety.Taking an itd of a road and bridge of Zhengzhou-Xi’an high-speed railway as an example,this paper establishes a variable weight combination prediction model based on gray GM(1,1)model and conic trend extrapolation method on the basis of analyzing the uneven settlement mechanism,and verifies the settlement monitoring data obtained from the monitoring scheme designed for the itd.The results show that in the latter five monitoring periods,the maximum difference between the measured values and the predicted values of D1 and D2 monitoring points is 0.20 mm,and the maximum square error of the prediction is 0.048,meeting the prediction accuracy requirements.In the next three years,the cumulative settlement of monitoring points D1 and D2 is 7.55 m and 15.31 mm,respectively.Under the action of no other special factors,the uneven settlement of the road and bridge itd will continue to maintain a stable state and will not affect traffic safety.