濮阳市近56年降水变化趋势及周期分析

Change Trend and Cycle Analysis of Precipitation in Puyang in Recent 56 Years

本文利用濮阳市1961—2016年近56a的逐日降水量的观测记录资料,运用线性倾向率统计、Mann-Kendall法以及小波分析的方法,重点对濮阳市降水量的变化趋势和突变进行了相关分析。结果表明:濮阳市年降水量的变化趋势是逐年递减的,降水量变化的倾向率是-9.86mm/10a;降水量的季节性变化呈逐渐减少趋势,夏季、秋季降水量减少的趋势十分明显;通过对月降水量的变化分析可以看出,5月、6月以及8月份的降水量变化呈增加趋势;平均年暴雨出现的日数呈递减趋势;通过Mann-Kendall法分析,发现濮阳市降水量在1963、2000、2005年突变明显,尤其是2012年,濮阳市年平均降水量突变特征明显。小波分析表明,濮阳市的降水序列存在3、5、10a的周期变化,其中,3a振荡变化周期最为明显。

In this paper, by using the observational records of daily precipitation near 56a from 1961 to 2016 in Puyang, this paper uses the method of linear tendency statistics, Mann-Kendall method and wavelet analysis to analyze the change trend and mutation of precipitation in Puyang. The result shows that the change trend of annual precipitation in Puyang is decreasing year by year, the tendency of precipitation change is-9.86mm/10a, the seasonal variation of precipitation is gradually decreasing, and the decreasing trend of precipitation in summer and autumn is very obvious. Through the analysis of the change of monthly precipitation, it can be seen that the change of precipitation in May , June and August shows an increasing trend, and the average annual rainstorm is out of the trend. The current number of days shows a decreasing trend;the precipitation in Puyang is found to be 1963, 2000, 2005 years abrupt, especially in 2012, and the annual average precipitation in Puyang is obvious. Wavelet analysis shows that the precipitation sequence in Puyang has 3, 5a and 10a, and the 3a oscillation period is the most obvious.