贸易与就业:国际研究的最新进展与政策导向——兼论化解中美贸易冲突对我国就业影响的政策选择

Trade and Employment: Literature Review of International Studies on the Latest Progress and Policy Orientation——On the Policy Choice of Resolving the Impact of Sino-US Trade Conflicts on China's Employment

随着全球经济一体化的深化,由劳动力国际化带来的失业增加、工资不平等、青年失业人口增多、非正规部门就业提高等诸多问题,已引起国际社会关注,贸易与就业成为当代国际贸易研究的重要课题。国际最新研究显示,贸易既能创造就业,也会导致失业,其就业净效应取决于不同国家的不同情况。从短期和局部看,因存在就业调整成本,贸易对不同国家、地区和个人会产生不同的影响;但从长期和整体看,贸易会对一国产业结构优化、高技能工人就业、工资提高和妇女就业产生积极影响。贸易能否发挥对劳动力市场水平和结构的积极影响,取决于政府的决策。中美贸易冲突将对我国就业产生重要影响,稳就业是中央提出的应对国内外复杂形势的首要任务。为化解中美贸易冲突对我国就业的影响,应尽快建立中国贸易调整援助制度,发挥中国在构建开放型世界经济中的引领作用,并从财政政策、金融政策、贸易政策、教育政策、区域政策和劳动力政策等方面综合施策。

With the deepening of global economic integration and the internationalization of employment,there are great concerns about increased unemployment,wage inequality,youth unemployment and informal employment.Trade and employment have become an important issue in the study of international trade.The latest international research shows that trade can create jobs,but also lead to increased unemployment,the net effect of which depends on the situation in different countries.In the short term,because of the cost of employment adjustment,trade will have a negative impact on employment of different countries,regions and individuals.But in the long run,trade will have a positive effect on upgrading industrial structure,and increasing high-skilled employment,wages and women s employment.Sino-US trade conflict will have an important impact on China's employment.Stabilizing employment is the government's primary task in coping with the complex situation at home and abroad.In order to cope with the impact of Sino-US trade conflicts on China s employment,it is necessary to establish China s institution of trade adjustment and assistance as soon as possible.At the same time,we should not only give play to China's leading role in building an open world economy,but also adopt a policy including fiscal policies,financial policies,trade policies,education policies,regional policies and labor market policies.