基于多代理的“西电东送”对广东电力现货市场的影响仿真分析

Multi-Agent Based Simulation for the Impact of “West-to-East Power Transmission”on Guangdong Spot Electricity Market

广东电力现货市场即将在明年开始正式运行。作为我国能源发展战略的重要组成部分,"西电东送"将对广东现货市场产生重大影响。由于电力系统的网络复杂性,仅基于传统经济学理论无法有效的建模并进行定量分析。基于多代理的市场仿真(multi-agent-based market simulation,ABMS)是通过自治的代理,自下而上的一种建模方法,适用于复杂系统的分析和仿真。应用ABMS对广东现货电力市场进行建模仿真,进而分析"西电"对市场的影响。仿真实验结果表明,"西电"作为外生供给在系统正常运行的情况下会降低广东平均电价,同时会压缩B类机组的出力时间。

Guangdong electricity spot market will officially run next yeak As an important pak of China’s long-term energy development strategy, the “West-to-East power transmission” will cast a major impact on the Guangdong electricity market. Due to the network complexity of power systems, traditional economic theories cannot be well modeled for quantitative analysis. Multi-agent-based market simulation (ABMS) comprises autonomous agents and provides bottom-up modeling methods for such a complex system study and Simulation. We apply ABMS to model and simulate the Guangdong electricity market, and then analyze the impact of “West-to-East” electricity power on the Guangdong market. Experiment results showthat “West-to-East” power as the exogenous supply would reduce the aver age electricity price in Guangdong under normal system operation as well as compress the generation time of class B units.