城镇化水平与猪肉价格变化关系实证分析

Empirical Analysis of Changing Relations between Urbanization Level and Pork Price

通过计算目前我国城镇化水平,采用经济学理论分析城镇化对猪肉价格变化影响机理,建立城镇化水平与猪肉价格二者之间的VAR模型来检验城镇化水平与猪肉价格变化相互影响关系。研究结果表明,城镇化水平与猪肉价格之间存在长期协整关系,城镇化水平正向波动1%,猪肉价格正向波动约0.56%;二者之间只存在单向格兰杰原因,城镇化水平是猪肉价格的格兰杰原因,反之则不成立;城镇化水平对猪肉价格变化具有瞬时性,城镇化水平变化对猪肉价格变化的影响会在8期内衰减为零;从长期来看,城镇化水平对猪肉价格变化的贡献率十分显著,达到均衡时约为46.7%。基于此提出在城镇化发展过程中平抑猪肉价格波动的对策建议。

By calculating the urbanization level of China, this paper uses economic theory to analyze the impact of urbanization on pork price variation, builds VAR model between urbanization level and pork price to examine the mutual influence relationship of urbanization level and pork price variation. The results indicate, there exists long run co-integration relation between urbanization level and pork level, the positive fluctuation in urbanization level is 1%, and the positive fluctuation of pork price is about 0.56%;there is single Granger causality, and the urbanization level is the Granger causality of pork price, not vice versa;urbanization level has instantaneity on pork price, and the impact of urbanization level on pork price will decay to zero in the 8 phases;in the long run, the contribution rate of urbanization level on pork price is significant, and it reaches up to about 46.7% to equilibrium. This paper puts forward policy suggestion to stabilize pork price fluctuation during the urbanization development process.