近年我国油菜籽价格波动及成因分析

An Analysis of the Price Fluctuation of Rapeseed of China in Recent Years and Its Causes

油菜籽是我国重要的植物油料,2015年国家取消油菜籽临储政策,对油菜籽价格及其产业发展产生了巨大影响,油菜籽价格波动又会反过来影响油菜种植户及油菜籽加工企业。通过对2017年油菜籽价格进行系统分析,同时利用BP和HP分析法对2009年以来油菜籽月度价格进行长期趋势和短期波动分析,结果表明:从长期趋势来看,油菜籽价格经历了先上升、再下降又上升的三个阶段;从短期趋势来看,油菜籽价格波动周期约为三年。根据油菜籽价格波动原因及其后期价格预测分析,提出了稳定油菜籽市场价格的建议。

Rapeseed is important vegetable oil resource of China. In 2015, China has cancelled rapeseed temporary purchase and storage policy, which has generate great impact on rapeseed price and the industrial development, and the rapeseed price wave also impacted the rape farmers and processing enterprises. This paper systematically analyzes the rapeseed price in 2017, and uses BP and HP method to analyze the long run trend and short run fluctuation of monthly price of rapeseed since 2009. The results indicate that, the rapeseed price underwent ascend-descend-ascend stage in the long run;the price fluctuation period is about three years in the short run. According to the price fluctuation cause and late price prediction, this paper puts forward suggestion to stabilize the market price of rapeseed.