西南民族地区对外贸易对三次产业发展的影响——基于VEC模型的实证分析

Impact of Foreign Trade of Minority Areas of Southwest China on Three-Industrial Development——based on Empirical Test of VEC Model

基于西南民族四省区1980年~2015年统计数据,运用协整理论和误差修正模型,实证分析了西南民族地区对外贸易对三次产业发展的长期影响和短期冲击。研究结果显示,西南民族地区对外贸易与三次产业发展之间存在长期均衡关系;VEC模型结果表明长期均衡关系显著,短期波动并未使得系统偏离长期均衡太远,且系统具有良好的自我调节机制;脉冲响应函数与方差分解结果共同表明西南民族地区对外贸易对三次产业发展具有长期正向效应,其中对外贸易对第二产业的影响要高于对第一、三产业的影响。

Based on the annual statistics data of the four provinces in Southwest China from 1980 to 2015, this paper uses co-integration theory and error correction model, takes an empirical analysis of the long run influence and short run impact of the foreign trade of minority areas of Southwest China on the three industrial development. The results indicate that: there is long run equilibrium between the foreign trade and three industrial development;The VEC model result reveals that the long run equilibrium is significant, the short run wave does not make the system deviate too much from the long run equilibrium, and the system has fine self-adjustment mechanism;the pulse response function and variance decomposition prove that the foreign trade has a long term positive effect on three industrial development, in which the impact on secondary industry is higher than that on first industry and third industry.