中国出口贸易的第三国效应研究——基于“一带一路”沿线国家空间面板数据

Research on the Third Country Effect of Export Trade of China——based on Spatial Panel Data of“The Belt and Road”National Lines

随着“一带一路”沿线国家区域经济合作的深入,中国对沿线国家的出口贸易成为该区域经贸发展的重要因素。基于2003年~2015年“一带一路”沿线56个国家面板数据,利用Arcgis和Geoda处理地图得到空间矩阵,进而采用空间SDM与SEM模型研究了中国出口贸易的第三国效应。结果表明:引入0-1矩阵考虑国家地理位置是否相邻时,中国对第三国的出口贸易活动会对出口到东道国的贸易产生显著挤出效应;引入地理距离矩阵考虑国家间距离时,在中国对“一带一路”沿线国家的出口贸易中第三国对东道国的挤出效应更加明显。此外,直接投资的第三国挤出效应将会限制中国对该国的出口贸易。基于研究结论,就贸易与区域合作协调发展提出了相关对策建议。

With the deepening regional economic cooperation in“The Belt and Road”line countries,the export trade of China to line countries has become the important factor of regional economic development.Based on the panel data of 56 nations along the“The Belt and Road”from 2003 to 2015,this paper uses Arcgis and Geoda to cope with maps to obtain spatial matrix,and applies spatial SDM and SEM model to investigate the third country effect of export trade of China.The results reveal that:while this paper introduces 0-1 matrix to judge the neighborhood of national geographical location,the export trade activities of China to the third country will generate significant crowding-out effect on the trade from the export to host country;while the geographical distance matrix is introduced to judge the intercountry distance,the crowding-out effect of the third country on host country in the export trade of China to“The Belt and Road”line countries is more significant.Moreover,the directly invested third country crowding-out effect will limit the export trade of China to the target country.Based on the research,this paper puts forward relevant countermeasure for the coordinated development of the trade and regional cooperation.