基于动态综合评价模型的粮食最低收购价政策效果研究

Research on Policy Effect of lowest Grain Purchasing Price based on Dynamic Comprehensive Evaluation Model

选取具有代表性的小麦与稻谷两个粮食品种,以河南和山西作为小麦执行政策省份和非执行政策省份,以湖南和广东作为稻谷执行政策省份和非执行政策省份,基于单位面积产量增长率、播种面积增长率、农村居民家庭经营农业现金收入增长率、农业生产资料价格指数等视角,运用动态综合评价模型,对我国粮食最低收购价政策的效果进行比较和评估。结果显示,我国在粮食主产区实施的粮食最低收购价政策在鼓励农民种粮积极性、增加粮食产量和市场供给、提高粮农收入、保障粮食安全等方面具有明显成效,发挥了重要作用。

This paper selects two grain varieties of wheat and rice, Henan and Shanxi as wheat policy execution province and policy non-execution provinces, Hunan and Guangdong as rice policy execution province and policy non-execution province, based on unit area production growth rate, planting area growth rate, rural family operational agricultural currency income growth rate, agricultural means of production price index, this paper uses dynamic comprehensive evaluation model to compare and estimate the domestic lowest grain purchasing price policy. The results show that the lowest grain purchasing price policy in the major grain production area is effective in encouraging cultivating motivation, raising grain production and market supply, raising farmers’ income and guaranteeing grain safety.