基于分层马尔可夫模型的冗余配置保护最优检修周期研究

Research on the Optimal Maintenance Cycle of Redundancy Protection Based on Hierarchical Markov Model

为解决基于马尔可夫方法评估冗余配置继电保护系统的可靠性会遇到状态数目多、状态划分难的问题,提出分层马尔可夫可靠性模型。在建立马尔可夫状态空间过程中,根据被保护设备所处的状态将被保护设备和保护装置的状态分为若干层,接着对每层再进行详细的状态划分,通过双重主保护加后备保护验证提出的可靠性模型并根据相应的可靠性指标求解该配置继电保护系统的最优检修周期。结果表明:继电保护装置的过检修和欠检修对保护系统的可靠性都不利,保护冗余配置比单重配置的可靠性更高,而且最优检修周期也更长,影响继电保护最优检修周期的主要因素是保护自身的可靠性,与被保护设备的可靠性关系不大,同时本方法可解决状态划分过程中的状态遗漏问题。

In order to solve the problem of numerous states in assessing the reliability of the redundant configured protection system based on Markov method, a hierarchical Markov model is presented. In the process of establishing Markov state space, the states of the protected device and protection system are divided into several layers according to their existing states. And then each layer is further divided into detailed states. Finally, a typical transmission system protection system is used to verify the proposed reliability model, and the optimal maintenance cycle is solved by this model. The results show that excessive maintenance and insufficient maintenance are both unfavorable to the reliability of the protection system. The redundant protection system is better than the single configured protection system in reliability, and has longer optimal maintenance cycle. The main factor that affects the optimal maintenance period of relay protection is the reliability of relay protection and have little relationship with the reliability of the protected equipment. This method can solve the problem of missed states in the process of state division.