基于模糊组合预测的河北省物流人才需求预测

Hebei Province Logistics Talents Demand Forecast Based on Fuzzy Combination Forecasting

为客观分析河北省物流人才需求,提高物流人才需求预测精度,研究了河北省物流人才需求预测方法,基于组合预测法的特点,运用三角模糊数确定组合预测法中各单项预测的模糊权重,建立基于最小预测误差值为目标函数的物流人才需求模糊组合预测模型,并通过参数估计给出预测模型的最优解。运用2002—2016年河北省物流人才就业数据进行实证分析,发现该模型具有较高精度,研究结果表明河北省物流人才需求在2017—2021年呈持续增长趋势,物流人才需求缺口呈扩大趋势。

In order to properly analyze the logistics talent demand in Hebei Province,we need to improve the accuracy of logistics personnel demand forecasting.Based on the characteristics of the combined forecasting method,we use triangular fuzzy numbers to determine the fuzzy weights of each single forecast in the combined forecasting method,and establish a logistics based on the forecast error value as an objective function.Talent demand fuzzy combination forecast model was built to give optimal solution of the forecast model through parameter estimation.Using the 2002-2016 Hebei logistics talent employment data for empirical analysis,the model has high accuracy.The research results show that the demand for logistics talents in Hebei Province has been growing in 2017-2021,and the demand gap for logistics talents has shown an expanding trend.