摘要
为客观分析河北省物流人才需求,提高物流人才需求预测精度,研究了河北省物流人才需求预测方法,基于组合预测法的特点,运用三角模糊数确定组合预测法中各单项预测的模糊权重,建立基于最小预测误差值为目标函数的物流人才需求模糊组合预测模型,并通过参数估计给出预测模型的最优解。运用2002—2016年河北省物流人才就业数据进行实证分析,发现该模型具有较高精度,研究结果表明河北省物流人才需求在2017—2021年呈持续增长趋势,物流人才需求缺口呈扩大趋势。
In order to properly analyze the logistics talent demand in Hebei Province,we need to improve the accuracy of logistics personnel demand forecasting.Based on the characteristics of the combined forecasting method,we use triangular fuzzy numbers to determine the fuzzy weights of each single forecast in the combined forecasting method,and establish a logistics based on the forecast error value as an objective function.Talent demand fuzzy combination forecast model was built to give optimal solution of the forecast model through parameter estimation.Using the 2002-2016 Hebei logistics talent employment data for empirical analysis,the model has high accuracy.The research results show that the demand for logistics talents in Hebei Province has been growing in 2017-2021,and the demand gap for logistics talents has shown an expanding trend.
作者
郭子雪
程涛
张雅辉
GUO Zixue;CHENG Tao;ZHANG Yahui(Department of Management, Hebei University, Baoding 071002, Hebei)
出处
《河北农业大学学报(社会科学版)》
2019年第1期130-134,共5页
Journal of Hebei Agricultural University (SOCIAL SCIENCES)
基金
国家社科基金项目(编号:11BGL089)
河北省社科发展课题(编号:201803120150)
河北省研究生创新资助项目(编号:CXZZSS2018005)
关键词
三角模糊数
物流人才需求预测
组合预测
triangular fuzzy number
demand forecast of logistics talents
combined forecasting