2019年中国经济核心指标预测

Forecasting China's Major Economic Indexes for 2019

2018年,我国经济呈现平稳下滑的态势,预计全年国内生产总值(GDP)增长率约为6.6%,比2017年下降0.3个百分点。物价走势整体平稳,呈现居民消费价格指数(CPI)温和回升、工业生产者出厂价格指数(PPI)和工业生产者购进价格指数(PPIRM)涨幅回落的态势。预计2019年我国经济将呈现"前降后稳,稳中有进"的态势,全年GDP增速约为6.3%左右。物价将继续保持温和上涨的态势,2019年全年CPI涨幅为2.0%左右。三大需求中,预计2019年我国进出口总额仍将继续保持稳定增长,但增速较2018年略有下降,其中进口增速略高于出口增速。以美元计价,预计2019年进出口总额增长7.9%左右,其中出口同比增长约6.6%,进口同比增长约9.4%。消费将保持平稳增长,预计2019年社会消费品零售总额同比增速约为8.5%。投资增速将略有回升,预计2019年固定资产投资增速在6%左右。

China’s GDP growth rate showed a steady slowdown quarter by quarter in 2018,it is expected to reach about 6.6% annually,0.3 percentages points lower year on year.Prices kept stable across 2018,of which CPI showed a moderate rise,while PPI and PPIRM declined in growth rate.GDP growth is projected to slow modestly in 2019,with a slight decline from the first to the second quarter,but turn to upward in the third and fourth quarters.The annual GDP growth rate is projected to be about 6.3%.Price continues to maintain the moderate upward trend,the annual CPI is expected to increase about 2.0%.The import and export will remain robust in growth though with a lower rate over 2018,the total volume of import and export is expected to grow up by about 7.9%,of which exports rise by about 6.6%,imports rise by about 9.4% respectively.The consumption will maintain steady growth in 2019,and the total retail sales growth rate is expected around 8.5%.The growth rate of fixed-asset investment might rise slightly in 2019,it is expected to reach around 6.0%.