退出的政治:美国制度收缩的逻辑

The Politics of Exit:The Logic of America’s Institutional Retrenchment

国际关系研究在聚焦大国利用国际制度扩展权势的同时,也日益需要关注"制度收缩",即大国频繁退出或威胁退出国际制度的现象。美国的制度收缩有着基本的政治过程逻辑:相对宽松的政治环境能为制度收缩打开时机窗口,有力的借口能塑造正当性和合理性,而对退出成本的权衡则决定了制度收缩的具体形式。即使美国总统特朗普有着"非传统"特质,其主导的制度收缩仍然适用于这一分析视角。特朗普上任时的国内政治状况为其提供了良好的制度收缩时机;基于国家利益和他者过错等借口,特朗普得以合理化其决策;围绕退出的变更成本和机会成本的复杂考量则决定了特朗普政府最终采取的制度收缩形式。制度收缩一方面可能帮助美国缓解压力、调适主导地位,另一方面也可能削弱其声望和影响力,并诱导其走向过度收缩。尽管如此,当前各类结构性因素仍然能够对特朗普政府的行为起到钳制作用,制度收缩尚未成为美国长期的战略取向。与此同时,中国可能赢得良好的制度扩展机会,但仍应保持审慎态度。制度收缩并非静态、机械的政策行为,其长远影响取决于大国在具体情境下的操作以及彼此之间的复杂互动。

In addition to its focus on how great powers use international institutions to expand their power,international relations research increasingly needs to consider “institutional retrenchment”,or the phenomenon whereby great powers frequently withdraw or threaten to withdraw from international institutions.There is a basic logic of political process behind America’s institutional retrenchment:a relatively hospitable political environment can open a window of opportunity for institutional retrenchment,while powerful excuses for exit can feed into narratives of its legitimacy and appropriateness.Meanwhile,consideration of the costs of exit determines the ultimate forms institutional retrenchment takes.Even though President Trump is considered “unorthodox”,this analytical lens can still be applied to understanding the U.S.institutional retrenchment under the Trump administration.Around the time of Trump’s inauguration,the domestic political conditions provided him with an opportune window of opportunity for institutional retrenchment.By citing national interests and blaming others,the Trump administration rationalizes its decisions.Complex calculations of the alteration costs and opportunity costs associated with institutional withdrawal determine the specific forms of institutional retrenchment.On the one hand,institutional retrenchment helps to alleviate pressures on America and sustainits dominance.On the other hand,institutional retrenchment takes a toll on America’s prestige and influence in the world with the potential of resulting in excessive retrenchment.Nonetheless,at present,structural forces continue to rein in the Trump administration,and institutional retrenchment has yet to become a part of America’s long term strategic scheme.At the same time,America’s institutional retrenchment affords China opportunities to expand itsinstitutional reach,although prudence and caution are still much needed.Institutional retrenchment is not a static or mechanical form of policy behavior.Its long-term ramifications are contingent on the great powers’maneuvers in concrete contexts,as well as on the complex dynamics between them.