人口负增长时代:特征、风险及其应对策略

The Era of Negative Population Growth: Characteristics,Risks and Strategies

本文客观地梳理了20世纪90年代以来我国人口负增长发展脉络的三个阶段历程,在总结学界对人口负增长概念剖析的基础上对人口负增长概念做了进一步的界定,勾画出人口负增长时代的主要特征及其形成的主要原因,预判了人口负增长对经济、社会、文化等方面的潜在风险,并前瞻性地提出应对人口负增长时代的主要思路与应对策略,即尽快建立中长期人口发展战略和超前预案、加强人口老龄化监测预防和适时放开生育政策、重视超低"生育率陷阱"与人口发展理念转变、弹性实施延迟退休政策及其进一步完善配套政策来开发人口红利等。

This paper demonstrates the three stages of the demographic development in China since the 1990s. It defines the concept of negative population growth based on analyzing previous academic researches, and outlines the main characteristics and main causes of negative population growth. It then predicts the potential effects of negative population growth on China s economy, society and culture. To manage the risks, this paper proposes the main ideas and strategies as follows, establishing medium and long-term population development strategies and advancing plans as soon as possible, strengthening the monitoring and prevention of population ageing, timely liberalizing the fertility policy, attaching importance to the ultra-low fertility trap and the change of population development concept, flexibly implementing the policy of delayed retirement an further improving the supporting policies to extend the demographic bonus, etc.