上海对周边城市的经济辐射力——以第三产业为例

The Economic Radiation of Shanghai to the Surrounding Cities——Taking the Third Industry as an Example

应用计量经济分析工具,研究了上海对周边城市经济增长的影响作用,结果表明上海经济发展对周边城市的经济发展有"反哺"效应。其中促进其经济增长的因素为本地区的第二、第三产业,仅第三产业对本地区经济增长的解释力高达88.5%,加入更多指标变量后,第三产业对地区经济增长的影响也高达54.3%;而上海第三产业的单变量指标对周边城市经济增长作用略大于1,加入完整指标变量后,上海第三产业对周边城市经济增长的解释力也高达88.4%.进一步还发现,第三产业与地区对外开放程度有关,即对外开放度大的地区,会更容易接受上海经济的辐射作用,并根据最后结论提出相关建议。

The effect of Shanghai on the economic growth of surrounding cities was studied by means of econometric analysis tools.The result shows that the economic development of Shanghai has the effect of“feeding back”to the economic development of the surrounding cities.The factors that promote its economic growth are the second and third industries in the region,and only the third industry explains the economic growth of the region as high as 88.5%,adding more index variables.After that,the impact of the third industry on regional economic growth is also up to 54.3%,while the single variable index of the third industry in Shanghai is slightly more than 1 for the economic growth of the surrounding cities,and the explanatory power of the third industry of Shanghai to the economic growth of the surrounding cities is also up to 88.4%after joining the complete index variable.It is also found that the third industry,which is related to the degree of opening to the outside world,is more likely to accept the radiation effect of the Shanghai economy,and put forward some suggestions according to the final conclusion.