洗钱、FDI与经济增长——基于56个国家门槛效应的检验

Money Laundering, FDI and Economic Growth——Based on Test of Threshold Effect of 56 Countries

FDI对经济增长的影响是国内外学者关注的热点问题,基于56个国家2000-2015年面板数据,以洗钱吸引力作为洗钱因素代理指标并以其为门槛变量探讨FDI与经济增长的非线性关系。实证分析表明洗钱因素作用下FDI对经济增长的影响为明显的"倒U型"双门槛效应,且该非线性关系在发达国家与发展中国家中表现不同。目前国际洗钱风险总体程度较高,少数洗钱吸引力较低的国家主要为发展中国家,国家经济发展程度较低为其洗钱吸引力低的主要原因,各国反洗钱监管仍需不断加强。

The impact of FDI on economic growth is a hot issue for scholars at home and abroad.With the panel data of 56 countries in the world from 2000 to 2015,this research designates the attractiveness of money laundering as a proxy indicator of money laundering factors and utilizes it as a threshold variable to discuss the nonlinear relationship between FDI and economic growth.Empirical analysis justifies that the influence of FDI on economic growth under the action of money laundering is obvious"inverted U-type"double threshold effect and such nonlinear relationship varies between developed and developing countries.Currently,the overall risk of money laundering in the international society is quite high and few countries with low money laundering attractiveness are prominently those developing countries,the main reason of which lies in their low level of national economic development.The supervision and regulation of anti-money laundering around the globe still needs to strengthen.