纳入预期的结构性减税政策效果分析——基于动态随机一般均衡模型

Analysis of the Effect of Structural Tax Reduction Policy When Incorporating Expectation——Based on DSGE Model

本文构建一个纳入完备摩擦的三部门动态随机一般均衡模型,研究预期到和未预期到的减税政策的效果及其差异。结果发现:一是减税会刺激经济增长,但不同减税措施效果有差别,消费税和劳动税减免能够带动消费和就业,但会抑制投资;资本税减免会带动投资,但抑制就业和消费。二是预期到的和未预期到的减税政策效果差异大。预期到的消费税和劳动税减免在政策实施前有紧缩效果,实施后有刺激效果;预期到的资本税减免在政策实施前后均有刺激效果,并且作用要大于未预期到的减税。基于上述结论,本文认为当前应综合运用各项减税措施,加大减税降费力度,同时应加强预期引导,优化减税政策效果。

This paper constructs a three- sector dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with complete friction to study the effects and differences of anticipated and unanticipated tax reduction policies. The results show that: First,tax cuts will stimulate economic growth,but different tax cuts have different effects. Consumption tax and labor tax reduction can drive consumption and employment, but will curb investment;capital tax reduction will drive investment, but restrain employment and consumption. Second,the anticipated and unanticipated tax reduction policies have large differences. The expected consumption tax and labor tax reduction have a tightening effect before the implementation of the policy,and have a stimulating effect after implementation;the expected capital tax reduction has a stimulating effect before and after the implementation of the policy,and the effect is greater than the unexpected tax reduction. Based on the above conclusions,this paper believes that the current tax reduction measures should be comprehensively used to increase the tax reduction and fee reduction. At the same time,it is necessary to strengthen the expectation guidance and optimize the effect of the tax reduction policy.