改革开放40年中国城市化进程研究

Research on the Chinese Urbanization Process in the Past 40 Years from the Reform and Opening-up

城市化进程不仅涉及生产要素由乡村向城市的转移,而且还包含着城市规模体系的变动。基于城市化发展的逻辑斯蒂模型、位序—规模模型等方法,从城市化发展阶段和城市规模体系演进两个维度,对改革开放40年的中国城市化进程进行了分析。结果表明:1978—1984年为城市化的初期阶段,1985—2018年为城市化的快速发展阶段;各规模城市的数量和总人数均得到了显著增加;城市规模体系指数由2000年的0. 6961,上升为2010年的0. 7376,城市规模体系呈现集中化趋势。工业化、信息化、城镇化和农业现代化叠加,以及对外开放格局的完善,是我国城市化进程取得显著成就的主要经验。未来,进一步坚持以人民为中心的指导原则,优化城市规模体系,树立正确的城乡一体化发展观,是促进中国城市化持续发展的主要途径。

The process of urbanization involves not only the transfer of production factors from rural to urban areas, but also the change of urban scale system. Based on the Logistic Model of urbanization development and the Rank Size Model, this paper analyzes the urbanization process of China in the past 40 years from the two dimensions of urbanization development stage and urban scale system evolution. The results show that 1978 1984 is the initial stage of urbanization and 1985 2018 is the rapid development stage of urbanization. The cities of different scales generally have experienced the trend of increasing volume and expanding total population. The index of urban scale system increased from 0.6961 in 2000 to 0.7376 in 2010, which means that the urban scale system has showed a centralized trend. The addition of industrialization, informatization, urbanization and agricultural modernization, as well as the perfection of the pattern of opening up, are the main experiences that have made remarkable achievements in China’ s urbanization process. The sustainable development of China’ s urbanization in the future needs to further adhere to the people centered guiding principle, optimize the city scale system, and set up the correct urban rural integration concept.