欧洲激进右翼政党选举格局论析

The Electoral Trajectory of European Radical Right Parties

当前欧洲在经济危机和反移民、反全球化的保守主义浪潮的冲击下,高举本土主义旗帜的激进右翼政党上升势头强劲。它们目前在各国选举中的基本格局如何?选民支持呈现怎样态势?针对上述重要实证问题,作者对20年来出现在欧洲各国的全部50个激进右翼政党在129次选举中的表现展开分析。客观数据表明,虽然在过去20年的各国选举中激进右翼政党有整体上升之势,但也有相当一部分国家激进右翼政治呈现颓势,激进右翼政党在各国的发展极不平衡,未能挑战主流政党在选举中的基本地位。它们不仅受制于代议制民主的特定制度设计,而且自身意识形态定位复杂,挣扎于与生俱来的极端化倾向与争取多数选民的去极端化的两难之间。欧洲社会调查的最新数据表明,激进右翼政党的选民支持状况在各国千差万别,以反移民和反欧盟一体化视角将各国激进右翼政党政治一概而论是重大误读。激进右翼政治的发展与各国的特殊社会、经济和制度背景紧密相关、无法割裂。

Due to the challenges of economic crisis, immigrants and the return of conservatism, European countries have witnessed a strong rise of radical right parties (RRPs) in recent elections. What is the general electoral pattern of these RRPs? Who voted for them? And why? These are empirical questions of importance. By mapping the electoral performances of 50 European RRPs in 129 elections from 1999 to 2018, this article shows that RRPs have generally experienced electoral rises in the past two decades on the one hand, whereas RRPs electoral performances are highly unbalanced from country to country on the other hand. RRPs cannot shake up the mainstream politics in European democracies. They are constrained by electoral systems, and are struggling with the dilemma between the natural ideological extremism and policy moderation for more support. Statistical models based on European Social Survey demonstrate that voters are supportive of RRPs for diverse reasons in different countries, not merely because of anti-immigrant and anti-EU sentiments. It is imperative to understand the diverse socioeconomic and cultural factors behind the rise and fall of European RRPs instead of a unified European model.