改革开放以来中美关系“压舱石”的演变进程、内在动力与未来走向

Evolution, Motivation and Future Trend of “Ballast” in the Sino-US Relations since China's Reform and Opening-up

尽管学界与媒体早已广泛使用"压舱石"一词来描述中美经济关系,但是对于国际关系中"压舱石"的概念界定、演变动力以及未来发展趋势尚未进行深入探讨。本文将"压舱石"定义为"能够在危机中维持两国或多国关系整体稳定的,某一问题领域中的国家间均衡关系",并通过回顾改革开放以来中美关系"压舱石"演变的历史进程,发现经济关系作为中美关系的长期性"压舱石"正在国际结构作用下面临消解;同时,恐怖主义、金融危机等非传统安全的"阶段性"压舱石也早已在问题领域的陈旧化和常态化的过程中不复存在。本文还提出了六种中美关系再次出现稳定"压舱石"的情形,并对未来中美关系做出展望。

Although the word“ballast”has long been widely used in academic circles and media reports to describe Sino-US economic relations, the definition of“ballast”in international relations, the motivation for its evolution, and its future development trend are yet to be discussed in depth. This article defines“ballast”as“balanced international relationship in certain areas that can maintain the overall stability of bilateral or multinational relations in a crisis”. By reviewing the historical evolution of“ballast”in the Sino-US relations since China’s reform and opening-up, it is found that the economic relations, as a long-term“ballast”of Sino-US relations, are facing the risk of disintegration under the influence of changing international structure. Meanwhile, the short-term non-traditional security“ballasts”, such as terrorism and financial crisis, have also disappeared as they have become obsolete or regular problems. The article puts forward six situations in which the stable“ballast”would reappear in Sino-US relations and forecasts the future prospects of Sino-US relations.