乌克兰危机与俄罗斯地缘经济的演变

The Ukraine Crisis and the Evolution of Russia's Geo-economy

因乌克兰危机与西方交恶后,俄罗斯地缘经济"向东转"成为热议的话题。本文利用俄罗斯对外贸易和吸引外资的数据详细考察了俄地缘经济的演变进程,结果发现,截至目前俄罗斯对于欧洲的实质依赖并未发生根本改变,特别是在能源和原材料的出口、吸引外资,以及对于部分关键的高科技产品的进口依赖上。与此同时,与西方地缘政治关系恶化,事实上推动俄罗斯加快了地缘经济"向东转"的步伐,尤其在进口贸易方面,亚太取代欧洲成为第一大进口来源地。中国不出所料大幅提升了在俄罗斯外贸中的份额,但在俄对外融资方面发挥的作用还十分有限。亚太地区特别是中国在资金和技术上尚无法完全替代欧洲的作用,这可能也是部分俄罗斯学者质疑"向东转"战略的原因之一。不过从更长时期考察,由世界经济重心东移亚太这一根本性因素所决定,俄地缘经济联系"向东转"的进程事实上是持续、稳定推进的。假以时日,俄地缘经济联系从根本上转向亚太将会不可逆转。

Due to the deterioration of relations with the West after the Ukraine crisis, Russia has shifted its focus of geo-economy to the East, a move that has been put into the spotlight. This article uses Russia's foreign trade and FDI data to investigate in detail the evolution of the country's geopolitical economy and it is found that the actual dependence of Russia on Europe so far has not changed significantly, especially in terms of energy and raw material exports, foreign investment, as well as imports of some key high-tech products. At the same time, however, the deterioration of its geopolitical relations with the West has actually accelerated the pace of the country’s geopolitical economy shifting to the East, especially in terms of import trade-the Asia-Pacific region has replaced Europe as Russia’s largest source of imports. China’s share in Russia’s foreign trade has predictably risen sharply, but its role in Russia’s external financing has been quite limited. The Asia-Pacific region, especially China, cannot completely replace the role of Europe in terms of capital and technology movement, which may be one of the reasons why some Russian scholars have questioned the country’s "Turning to the East" strategy. But in a longer period of time, because of the shift of the global economic power to the Asia-Pacific region being an inevitable trend, the process of the eastward shift of Russia's geoeconomic ties will be sustained and stable. In time, the fundamental shift of Russia's geoeconomic ties to the Asia-Pacific will be irreversible.