中越双边产品内贸易及其影响因素

China-Vietnam Bilateral Intra-Product Trade and Its Influencing Factors

基于产品内贸易视角,利用1995~2016年的时间序列数据,对中越双边贸易状况进行分析。发现产品内贸易是中越双边贸易的主要构成部分,并且其在不利的条件下继续保持增长、占比不降反升,发挥了中越双边贸易稳定器的作用。为此,进一步采取逐步回归分析法,实证检验中越产品内贸易的影响因素。检验结果表明:中越双边产品内贸易主要受外商直接投资、要素禀赋差异、双方的规模经济和中国—东盟自由贸易区成立的影响。最后,对其原因加以分析,并提出相应政策建议。

Based on time-sequence data during 1995-2016, this paper analyzes the situation of China-Vietnam bilateral goods trade from the perspective of intra-product trade. It is found that intra-product trade is the main component of China-Vietnam bilateral goods trade, and China-Vietnam bilateral intra-product trade maintains a steady growth against unfavorable conditions with a rising proportion instead of a declining one, which fully exerts its function as a stabilizer of China-Vietnam bilateral goods trade. On this basis, the paper uses stepwise regression analysis to conduct an empirical test on the influencing factors in China-Vietnam intra-product trade. The results show that China-Vietnam bilateral intra-product trade is mainly affected by foreign direct investment, difference in factor endowment, relative industrial scale of both sides and the establishment of China-ASEAN Free Trade Area. Finally, the paper analyzes appropriate reasons and puts forward some relevant suggestions to policy making.