地方政府负债与居民福利的倒U型关系

An Inverted U Relationship between Local Government Debt and Residents' Welfare

从居民福利最大化视角,分析地方政府负债与居民福利之间的关系。地方政府负债通过"净收入效应"和"环境污染效应"的作用机制,从而对地区居民福利产生非线性影响。实证研究表明,地方债增长与居民福利存在倒"U型"关系,即在地方债增长超过转折点以后,地方债务增加使得居民福利下降。分地方债务发展阶段看,2005年之前最优居民福利的地方债增长转折点大于2005年之后最优居民福利的地方债增长转折点。分城镇地区和乡村地区看,城镇居民最优福利的地方债增长转折点小于乡村居民最优福利的地方债增长转折点。

From the perspective of residents’welfare maximization,this paper analyzes the relationship between local government debt and residents’welfare.Local government debt can non-linearly affect the welfare of residents through mechanisms of“net income effect”and“environmental pollution effect”.Empirical research results show that:there is an inverted Ushaped relationship between local government debt growth and residents’welfare,which shows that the increasing of local government debt makes the welfare of regional residents decline after local government debt growth exceeding its turning point.From the prospective of the stages of local government debt development,before 2005,the turning point of local government debt growth with optimal residents’welfare is higher than that of local government debt growth since 2005.After 2005,the growth of local government debt has negative impacts on residents’welfare.From the view of urban and rural areas,the turning point of local government debt growth for the optimal welfare of urban residents is lower than that of rural residents.