中国房地产交易真的是卖方市场吗?——基于双边随机边界模型的实证研究

Is the Transaction of Real Estate in China Really a Seller's Market?Empirical Study Based on Two-Tier Stochastic Frontier Model

科学测算房地产交易市场买卖双方议价能力对市场价格形成的影响作用,是当前政府制定"因地施策"宏观调控机制的重要前提。采用双边随机边界模型,考察房地产交易环节中买卖双方议价能力的差异,结果表明:(1)买卖双方讨价还价因素对商品房销售价格的最终形成存在显著影响;(2)从全国平均水平看,对于整体市场以及住宅、写字楼和商铺等细分市场,卖房者议价能力在双方讨价还价过程中占主导地位,但买方议价能力的影响作用也不容忽视;(3)从一线、新一线、二线和三线城市角度看,除了一线城市商铺市场以及三线城市总体城市、住宅市场和写字楼市场外,其他均处于卖方市场阶段。

To measure influences of the bargaining power of buyers and sellers on the formation of market price in the real estate market through a scientific method is an important prerequisite for the government to formulate the macro-control mechanism of“act according to local characteristics”.This paper uses two-tier stochastic frontier model to investigate the differences in bargaining power between the buyers and sellers in the real estate market.The results show that:(1)Bargaining between the buyer and the seller makes a significant impact on the final formation of the transaction price of real estate.(2)At the national average level,the bargaining power of the sellers dominates the bargaining process of the overall market as well as the residential market,office market and commercial housing market,however,the effect of buyer s bargaining power would not be ignored.(3)From the perspective of cities of first-tier,new first-tier,second-tier and third-tier,in addition to the commercial housing market in first-tier cities,aggregate market in third-tier cities,residential market in third-tier cities and office market in third-tier cities,the others are at the stage of the seller s market.