城市化水平、外商直接投资与中国环境污染

Urbanization Level,Foreign Direct Investment and Environmental Pollution in China

基于2005-2014年中国省际面板数据,构建了以城市化水平为门槛变量的回归模型,实证检验了外商直接投资对中国碳排放影响的门槛效应,结果表明外商直接投资对碳排放影响具有明显的城市化水平双门槛效应:当城市化水平未跨越第一个门槛值时,引进外商直接投资会导致碳排放量增加;当城市化水平跨越了第一个门槛值进入中期阶段时,引入外商直接投资虽然会促进碳排放的增加,但是系数在降低且并不显著;当城市化发展水平跨越第二个门槛值进入了后期阶段,外商直接投资的增加会抑制碳排放上升。因此,各地区应根据城市化水平所处阶段,因地制宜地制定外商直接投资引进政策,积极发挥外商直接投资对碳减排的正向效应,以实现绿色低碳可持续发展。

Based on the provincial panel data in China from 2005 to 2014, a regression model with the level of urbanization as the threshold variable was constructed, and the threshold effect of FDI on China’s carbon emissions was examined. The results show that FDI has a significant double threshold effect of urbanization level on the carbon emission: when the urbanization level does not exceed the first threshold value, the introduction of FDI would lead to the increase of carbon emissions;when the urbanization level exceeds the first threshold value and enters?the middle stage, although the introduction of FDI would promote the increase of carbon emissions, the coefficients are lower and not significant;when the urbanization level exceeds the second threshold and enters the late stage, the increase of FDI would restrain carbon emissions. Therefore, each region needs to formulate FDI introduction policy according to its local urbanization level, thus giving a full play to the positive effect of FDI on carbon emission reduction, so as to realize the development of green low-carbon sustainable economy.