叙利亚重建的困境、归因与超越

Reconstruction in Syria:Obstacles,Causes and Breakthroughs

随着叙利亚战事逐步进入收尾阶段,叙利亚重建工作遂进入重要阶段。对于历经多年战乱的叙利亚来说,政治、经济、安全的重建及对外关系的重塑与调适,是重建进程中相互独立且彼此交织的议题。在政治领域,叙利亚政府将与各个反对派政治团体、库尔德人展开政治博弈,涉及中央政府权力分配与地方自治机构的未来安排;在经济领域,叙利亚政府需要尽快恢复与提振受战争重挫的国民经济,其中资金短缺是核心问题;在安全领域,关键点在于如何处理叙利亚政府军和各个反政府武装之间的复杂关系,停止国内冲突与保持社会稳定;在对外关系领域,则涉及叙利亚政府与周边大国和国际社会如何重构彼此关系。基于叙利亚重建面临的多重挑战,该国政府需要与各方协调,妥善解决好如何定义"重建"、谁来协调"重建"和谁来帮助"重建"三个问题。

As the Syria civil war enters its final stage,national reconstruction process has become an important topic for both Syria and the international society.For Syria reconstruction process,political reconstruction,economic reconstruction,security reconstruction and diplomatic adjustment are four issues that are both interconnecting with and independent of each other.The political reconstruction not only concerns with the competition between Syria central government and various opposition groups and Kurdish groups,but also closely relates to political arrangement between central government and local authorities.The economic reconstruction mainly relates to Syria government’s plan to restore Syrian economic development capability,while the major obstacle is how to collect enough money for various construction projects.The key of the security reconstruction is how to reconstruct the relation between government forces and various rebel groups in Syria,how to end hostility between different groups,and how to maintain social stability.For Syria’s diplomatic policy,the major obstacle is how to adjust the relations between Syria and different international and regional powers.The reconstruction process in Syria could be summarized as three main questions,namely “how” to reconstruct,“who” to reconstruct and “which” states to involve the reconstruction.