从“十月抗议”事件审思伊朗二元政治结构的稳定性

Examining the Stability of Iran's Dual Political Structure from the Event of “Dey-mah Protest”

1979年伊朗伊斯兰革命取得胜利,给该国政治和社会带来深刻的变化。在宗教领袖霍梅尼领导下,伊朗伊斯兰共和国建立并实行了二元政治结构,它具有超越社会阶层的宗教和教士集团统治国家特征。虽然2018年元旦前后伊朗突发"十月抗议",但最终事件得到有效管控,其内在机理在于伊朗二元政治结构具有维护社会稳定的功能,即宗教领袖能够较好地发挥独特的平衡作用,多党派政治竞争须在伊斯兰体制内展开,伊斯兰革命卫队是捍卫伊斯兰统治秩序的有力支撑。伊朗的二元政治结构有利于稳定,但其长期低效运行,制度性腐败严重制约了经济发展。从未来政策取向看,伊朗需要加快提升国家经济治理能力和推进体制内的政治、经济改革,以维护政治和社会稳定。

The victory of the Islamic Revolution in 1979 brought profound changes to Iranian politics and society.Under the leadership of religious leader Khomeini,the Islamic Republic of Iran established and implemented a dual political structure characterized by religious and clerical rule that transcends social strata.Although Iran’s “Dey-mah Protest” occurred around New Year’s Day in 2018,the incident was effectively controlled,and its internal mechanism lies in the function of Iran’s dual political structure to maintain social stability,that is,religious leaders can better play a unique balancing role;multi-party political competition carries out within the Islamic system,and the Islamic Revolutionary Guards firmly defends the order of Islamic rule. Iran ’ s dual political structure is conducive to stability,but the long-term inefficient operation,institutional corruption seriously restricts economic development.From the perspective of future policy orientation,Iran needs to accelerate the improvement of national economic governance capabilities and promote political and economic reforms within the system to promote political and social stability.