北京市林业产业关联和结构升级研究

Study on the Linkage and Structural Upgrading of Forestry Industry in Beijing

在北京市投入产出表和北京市林业统计年鉴数据的基础上,利用投入产出分析中的产业关联指标和产业结构超前系数、Moore结构变化值法,分析北京市林业产业结构特点和变化趋势。结果表明:北京市三大产业与林业产业的关联度从大到小依次为第一产业、第三产业、第二产业;北京市林业产业停留在粗放型的发展阶段,属于中间产品型基础产业; 2007—2016年,北京市林业三大产业发生较大的结构性变化,第三产业发展迅速,并逐渐趋于稳定。针对北京市林业产业的结构优化与可持续性发展,首先应当继续推动第一产业的发展,以市场为导向发展林下经济;其次要积极推动新兴产业的发展,更有必要加大林业第三产业的发展,促使北京市林业产业结构由"一、三、二"向"三、一、二"转变;最后要打造森林生态旅游和森林康养,增强林业第三产业对经济的贡献作用。

⑴ Background-- In order to adapt to the development of forestry industry,the forestry industry structure must meet new requirements to face new challenges,adjust and optimize according to local conditions.It is still an urgent problem for Beijing forestry industry to have a deep understanding of the changes in forestry industrial linkage and internal industrial structure,and to further promote the optimization and upgrading of forestry industrial structure.⑵ Methods-- The industrial linkage degree of Beijing forestry is analyzed by using the relevant calculation method of input-output model.The industrial structure upgrading direction and speed of three major forestry industries in Beijing are calculated by using the industrial structure advance coefficient and the Moore structural change value method.⑶ Results--①The linkage degree between the three major industries and forestry industry in Beijing is:primary industry>tertiary industry>secondary industry.Beijing forestry industry occupies the dominant position.The linkage degree between forestry industry and primary industry is the greatest.The linkage degree between tertiary industry and tertiary industry is gradually rising.The linkage degree of secondary industry is relatively low,which indicates that Beijing forestry industry is weak due to its ecological and social function positioning.The development of the secondary industry is weak based on intermediate products,and the development of intensive processing is slow.However,compared with the primary industry and the secondary industry,the development of Beijing forestry industry has a strong promotion effect on economy,and a great contribution to economic development.②In 2007-2016,the development share of the primary and secondary industries of forestry industry is declining,while the industrial structure advance coefficient of the tertiary industry of forestry industry is greater than 1(2.43).The upgrading direction is in the advanced state.The overall structure will be transformed and upgraded to the tertiary industry.The industrial structure is expected to move from the original“primary industry,secondary industry and tertiary industry”to“primary industry,tertiary industry and secondary industry”and finally to“tertiary industry,primary industry and secondary industry”.③It can be seen from the coefficient of change in industrial structure that the structural changes of Beijing forestry industry tend to be stable,showing a steady upward trend,and the decline in volatility after 2012 is stable within the range of 0.1-0.2.⑷ Conclusions and Discussions-- First of all,the forestry primary industry is a basic industry.The development of ecological public welfare forests and the construction of green and livable places are the main tasks of the current ecological civilization construction of the capital,but we should also vigorously develop the under-forest economy and promote the coordinated development of various mixed modes.Secondly,it is necessary to appropriately explore the development space of the secondary industry of Beijing forestry industry,moderately develop the non-timber forest product processing industry of forestry system,actively promote the development of emerging industries,and promote technological innovation.Finally,we should vigorously develop the forestry tertiary industry,and promote the transformation of Beijing forestry industry structure from“primary industry,tertiary industry and secondary industry”to“tertiary industry,primary industry and secondary industry”.It is necessary to continue to develop and strengthen forest tourism and leisure,improve the forestry management and service level,develop the forest ecological landscape tourism industry with different characteristics and so on.