陆海复合型国家战略转型的动力机制——兼论对中国的启示

The Dynamic Mechanism of Maritime-Land Countries' Strategic Transformation and Its Enlightenment for China

本文将新古典现实主义理论框架与地缘政治相结合,分析陆海复合型国家从陆权到海权转型的动力机制。动力机制主要由体系结构和单元、次单元要素构成。体系结构涉及地缘格局、地理互动和攻防平衡三部分,它们共同形成国家所面临的包容性/约束性战略环境;单元和次单元层面涵盖战略学说、崛起路径、国内汲取资源和动员能力、国内经济转型四要素,它们分别影响国家战略决策的认知、决策制定和执行。外部战略环境作为自变量,需要通过国家战略决策层面这一中介变量的过滤,才能对战略转型发挥作用,且自变量与中介变量的作用大小通常成反比。中国从陆权到海权转型的历史背景、战略环境、崛起路径、战略学说、资源汲取和动员能力等方面具有时代的特殊性。中国最佳的转型路径应是陆主海从、防御性模式,兼顾"韬光养晦"和"有所作为",避免陷入大国崛起和战略转型的过度扩张悲剧。

This paper combines the theoretical framework of neoclassical realism and geopolitics to analyze the dynamic mechanism of maritime-land countries’ transformation from continental powers to maritime powers. The dynamic mechanism consists of the structure, unit and subunit elements. The structure involves geo-pattern, geographic interaction and the balance between offense and defense, and the three parts alto-gether shape the inclusive or restrictive strategic environment of the countries. The unit and subunit elements cover strategic doctrine, paths of rising, capacity to absorb domestic resources and mobilize, and domestic economic transformation, which respectively influence the perception, decision-making, and en-forcement of the national strategic decision. As an independent variable, external strategic circumstances function in the strategic transformation only after being filtered by the mediating variable of national strategic decision-making level, and the efficacy of independent variable is inversely proportional to that of mediating variable. China’s transformation to a maritime power is confronted with challenges unique to the times such as historical background, strategic environment, the path of rising, strategic doctrine, and the ability to ab-sorb resources as well as mobilize. The optimal path of China’s transformation is to take the defensive mode in which the continental power dominates while complemented by the maritime power. Such a path could make a balance between “keeping a low profile” and “being proactive in actions”, and avoid the tragedy of over-expansion in the rise and strategic transformation of the great power.