从美国对华贸易调查新特征看应对中美贸易摩擦升级的路径选择

An Overview of the Choice of Path for Dealing with the Escalating Sino-US Trade Friction Based on the New Characteristics of US Trade Investigation against China

贸易调查是中美贸易摩擦中重要的表现形式。其中,"双反"措施、"非市场经济地位"由于具有一定的"规锁"性而备受美国青睐,这一逻辑也反映在特朗普政府对华加征关税后的政治诉求上。美国对华贸易战暂停90天的缓冲期对中美双方都至关重要,如何用时间换空间,哪些"理"能让,如何找到中美之间最大公约数是协议达成的关键。本文在全面梳理美国对华贸易调查案件特征基础上,以公平贸易为理论基础,对美国贸易政策主张进行阐释,找到美国对华关税战与贸易调查特征之间的内在逻辑,对中美经贸磋商的走向进行预判,并提出面对中美贸易摩擦的长期性和世界面临百年未有之大变局,中国最好的应对就是坚持40年来的社会主义市场经济体制改革,在承诺更大对外开放的同时,更要加强自身内部的市场化、法制化建设。中国要打破美国的"规锁政策"就是不要"逢美必驳",承认公平贸易的合理性,学习对手的经验,把自己变成规则的维护者,然后才是规则的制定者,中美经济实力竞争的背后是体制和制度的竞争。

Trade investigation is the most important form of trade friction between China and the United States,which has by far become a normality.The“anti-dumping and countervailing”measures and“non-market economy status”are favored by the US because of their“confinement”nature.This logic is also reflected in the political appeal of the Trump Administration after imposing higher tariffs on China.The 90-day buffer period for the suspension of the U.S.trade war with China is crucial for both parties.How to exchange time for space,what“compromise”can be made,and how to find the“greatest common divisor”between China and the United States are the keys to the agreement.By conducting a comprehensive analysis on the characteristics of the US trade investigation cases against China,this paper interprets,based on the theory of fair trade,the US trade policies,finds the internal logic between the US tariff war against China and the characteristics of its trade investigation,and predicts the trend of Sino-US economic and trade negotiations.It also puts forward that,faced with the long-term nature of Sino-US trade friction and the unprecedented changes of the world in a century,China’s best response is to persist in the reform of the socialist market economic system over the past 40 years,and while promising greater openness to the outside world,to strengthen its own internal marketization and legislation.If China wants to break through the“confinement”policy of the United States,it should avoid opposing everything by the U.S.,accept the legitimacy of fair trade,learn from the experience of its opponents,and eventually turn itself first into the maintainer and then the maker of the rules.It is the competition of systems that lies behind the competition of economic strengths between China and the United States.