基于AETA监测数据的地震预测研究

Earthquake Prediction Research Based on Data of ETA

针对2017年8月8日中国四川省九寨沟县Ms 7.0级地震事件,分析AETA地震前兆监测设备上地震前后的数据。结果显示,四川地区已安装的36个台站中,有13个出现相关异常,其中9个台站为密切相关。在异常台站中发现一种与日升日落几乎同步的电磁扰动均值波形(称为SRSS波),有11个台站在震前出现该波形。采用PCAETA算法对这11个台站的数据进行分析,计算得到九寨沟防震减灾局AETA台站(104.25°E,33.26°N)的波形震前震后出现明显的异常条带,2017年8月12日至11月20日冕宁防震减灾局AETA台站(102.17°E,28.55°N)的AETA波形也出现震前异常条带。结果表明,AETA设备可在地震发生前捕捉到多点的密切相关的前兆异常, SRSS波的条带异常现象是比较明确的临震前兆特征。

Through the analysis of data of AETA (a system of earthquake precursory signals), before and after Jiuzhaigou Ms 7.0 earthquake in Sichuan Province on August 8, 2017, the result shows that there were 13 AETA stations which captured the associated abnormalities of 36 AETA stations stalled in Sichuan Province, and 9 of which were close related. A typical wave (SRSS wave) of electronic-magnetic disturbance average value found in 11 stations of the 13 stations, had a feature of changing synchronously with the time of sunrise and sunset. An abnormal stripe was found before and after Jiuzhaigou earthquake by PCAETA algorithm applied in SRSS of the 11 stations. Furthermore, the abnormal stripe is also found in Mianning Disaster Prevention and Mitigation Bureau station during August 12 to November 20, in 2017. It is concluded that AETA system can capture close related precursory abnormalities at multiple stations before earthquake and the abnormal stripe of SRSS wave is an obvious and specific earthquake precursory characteristics.