参考点依赖偏好能够解释中国居民的储蓄行为吗

Can Reference Dependent Preference Explain Household Savings in China?

20世纪末,行为经济学家将参考点依赖偏好引入储蓄模型,尝试以参考点的变化解释不确定情景下的居民储蓄行为,然而该模型的预测力和解释力因缺少经验证据支持而仍然未知。为确定参考点依赖偏好能否解释中国居民的储蓄行为,本文以汶川地震为特殊情景,建立了两期的参考点储蓄决策模型,依据地震变化所造成的全部路径,对居民储蓄与幸福感变化展开理论预测,进一步借助中国家庭收入调查(CHIP)数据库,采用倾向得分匹配-双重差分法(PSM-DID)验证预测路径的现实解释力。研究发现:地震灾难能够对不同人群的参考点产生"回归"影响——对原本高参考水平者,灾难会降低其参考点;对原本低参考水平者,灾难会提升其参考点。参考点的"回归"能够有效地解释无论是在长期还是短期内,汶川地震灾区城镇家庭储蓄率升高的现象。

At the end of the 20 th century,behavioral economists introduced reference-dependent preferences into the savings model to try to explain household savings behavior in scenarios of uncertainty,but there is a lack of empirical evidence to verify the model's prediction or interpretation.To find out whether the reference dependent preference can explain Chinese residents savings behavior,this paper builds a two-period reference-dependent savings model based on the special case of Wenchuan earthquake,and makes theoretical predictions of changes to residents savings behavior and happiness based on all the change paths caused by the earthquake.Then based on data from the Chinese Household Income Project (CHIP),it attempts to verify these predictions by using the propensity score matching-difference-in-differences method (PSM-DID).It finds that the earthquake has a “trending toward median” effect on the reference of different groups-it lowers the reference of people with a high original reference,whereas elevates the reference of those with a lower original reference.The “trending toward median” of references can effectively explain the increase in the urban household savings rate in the earthquake-hit areas in both long and short terms.