房价、财政支出与产业结构升级——基于市场和政府协调发展视角的分析

Housing Price,Fiscal Expenditure and Industrial Structure Upgrading——Analysis Based on the Coordinated Development Perspective from the Market and Government

产业结构升级是经济发展的内在要求,也是实现经济发展从量变到质变的关键环节。从协调发展视角出发,本文探讨了以房价为代表的房地产市场机制和以财政支出为代表的地方政府机制与产业结构升级之间的互动效应,并利用联立方程组模型进行实证分析,研究发现:从房价变动和财政支出变动对产业结构升级变动的直接影响来看,房价变动和财政支出变动增加有助于推动产业结构升级变动;从房价变动和财政支出变动对产业结构升级变动的间接影响来看,房价变动增加会导致财政支出变动增加,同时,财政支出变动增加会导致房价变动增加,从而都间接推动产业结构升级。协调好房地产市场发展与地方政府财政支出将有助于推动中国产业结构升级。

The upgrading of industrial structure is the inherent requirement of economic development and also the key to reali- ze economic development from quantitative change to qualitative change.From the perspective of coordinated development,this paper focuses on the interaction effect among the market mechanism represented by house price,government mechanism represented by fiscal expenditure and industrial structure upgrading.Using relevant data of China to conduct empirical analysis,the results show that:from the direct influence of the house prices fluctuation and fiscal expenditure fluctuation on the industrial structure upgrading fluctuation,both of the increase of the house prices fluctuation and fiscal expenditure fluctuation will promote the industrial structure upgrading fluctuation;from the indirect influence of the house prices fluctuation and fiscal expenditure fluctuation on the industrial structure upgrading fluctuation,the increase of house price fluctuation will lead to the increase of fiscal expenditure fluctuation,meanwhile,the increase of financial expenditure fluctuation will lead to the increase of house price fluctuation,thus they indirectly promote the upgrading of industrial structure.Therefore,coordinating the development of the real estate market and the expenditure of local government will help promote the upgrading of China's industrial structure.