基于SD的既有线施工安全管理多目标决策分析

Multi-objective decision making in construction safety management of railway in service based on system dynamics

针对既有线施工风险事故高发,进度难以顺利开展的现状问题,提出一种基于SD的既有线施工多目标决策分析方法。在实践基础上对既有线施工关键问题安全和进度进行识别,并构建多目标管理系统结构框图;在此基础上确定模型边界和子系统,通过劳动力数量、操作水平和返工率等要素深入反映系统目标之间的相互影响关系并构建因果关系图;结合案例进行模型仿真,对不同行为模式和不同天窗兑现率下的系统变化趋势进行对比分析,提出系统满意解和不同系统目标下的优化策略,结果表明,天窗兑现率对既有线施工违章和风险水平影响较大,为既有线施工安全管理提供了政策支持和参考。

In view of the current problems of high incidence of existing railway construction risk accidents and the difficult development of engineering progress,a multi-objective decision analysis method based on system dynamics was proposed.On the basis of practice,the key problems of safety and progress faced by existing railway construction were identified,and a block diagram of construction management system was built from the perspective of multi-objective.On this basis,the model boundary and subsystems were identified,and the interaction relationship between the different system goals was deeply reflected by factors such as the number of labor,operation level,repetition rate,and according to the system causality diagram,the feedback loop analysis was carried out and the optimization suggestions were proposed.The SD model simulation was carried out with case study and,the comparative analysis about the trend of system changes under the different policy patterns and realization possibility of skylight was conducted,and as a base of it,the system satisfactory solution was obtained,the optimization strategy under different system targets was given,and the analysis result shows the height of the realization possibility of skylight has great influence on the construction violation and risk level of existing lines.The research provides policy support and reference for the safety management of existing railway construction.