农业现代化、空间溢出效应与安徽省经济增长——基于市级面板数据的空间计量分析

Agricultural Modernization,Spatial Spillover and Economic Growth in Anhui——Based on Spatial Econometric Analysis Municipal Panel Data

运用探索性空间数据分析方法和空间杜宾模型,研究安徽省农业现代化对安徽省经济增长的作用及其空间溢出效应,得出如下结论:农业现代化存在正的空间自相关性,且从2010年到2016年相关性逐渐增强;农业现代化可以有效地促进本地区经济增长,但是对周边市(区)的促进作用并不显著;城镇化水平提高、消费水平提高、固定资产投资增加、劳动力资源的增加均能促进本地区经济增长,同时对周边市(区)产生负的空间溢出效应;农业现代化可以有效促进安徽省整体经济增长。

Using exploratory spatial data analysis method and spatial Durbin model,this paper mainly studies the effect of agricultural modernization on the economic growth of Anhui province and its spatial spillover effect.The following conclusions are drawn:There is a positive spatial autocorrelation in agricultural modernization,and the correlation is gradually increasing from 2010 year to 2016 year;Agricultural modernization can effectively promote economic growth in the region,but the promotion effect on the surrounding cities is not significant;The improvement of urbanization level,the increase of consumption level,the increase of investment in fixed assets and the increase of labor resources all can promote the economic growth in the region,and have negative spatial spillover effect on the surrounding cities(regions);Agricultural modernization can effectively promote the overall economic growth of Anhui province.