适度扩大总需求与产业结构调整升级

Moderate Expansion of Aggregate Demand and Adjustment and Upgrading of Industrial Structure

本文认为,在我国经济发展进入新常态或新阶段的条件下,国内需求增速下行使经济增长面临较大下行压力,相当一段时期内保持L型增长也主要是依靠宏观调控的作用。为了推进产业结构调整升级,必须坚持实施适度扩大总需求的政策,创造稳定的环境和有利的条件。适度扩大总需求是为了适度稳增长,使实际增长率不过多偏离潜在增长率,使经济运行保持在合理区间。完善需求管理政策的基本取向是贯彻落实稳中求进的工作总基调,根据形势变化加强政策的微调预调。依靠深化需求侧结构性改革,促进投资稳定增长和消费较快增长,积极扩大出口和引进外资,保持价格总水平相对稳定,防范结构性通缩与结构性通胀的交错影响。发挥需求侧协同政策对产业结构调整升级的作用,要协调好总量政策与结构政策的关系,协调好稳增长政策与防控金融风险的关系,协调好国内宏观政策取向与国际政策环境变化的关系。

This paper holds that as China's economic development has entered a new normal or new stage, China's economic growth is facing downward pressure due to weak domestic demand. It is difficult to have a “new cycle” of economic recovery in the near future and the L-shaped growth mainly depends on the effect of macro-control. In order to promote industrial restructuring and upgrading, we must adhere to the policy of moderately expanding aggregate demand and create a stable environment. The purpose of moderately expanding aggregate demand is to achieve moderate growth, so that the real growth rate would not deviate too much from the potential growth rate and the economy would be within reasonable range. The basic orientation of improving demand management policy is to act upon the general principle of pursuing progress while ensuring stability and strengthen the fine-tuning and predictive adjustment of policies according to the changes in economic situation. We need to depend on deepening demand-side structural reform, promote steady growth of investment and relatively faster growth of consumption, increase exports and introduce FDI actively, keep a relatively stable price level, and prevent the crossing effect of structural deflation and structural inflation. To give full play to the role of demand-side coordination policy in industrial restructuring and upgrading, we should coordinate the relationships between aggregate policy and structural policy, between stable growth policy and preventing financial risks, and between domestic macro-policy orientation and changes in international policy environment.