福建省农业碳排放时空变化及其驱动因素

Spatial-temporal Variations and Driving Forces of Agricultural Carbon Emissions in Fujian

【目的】研究福建省农业碳排放时空动态变化规律及其驱动因素,为福建省农业实现低碳化发展提供理论依据。【方法】利用《福建统计年鉴》(1990-2016年)的农业生产数据对全省农业碳排放进行测算,运用地理信息系统(ArcGIS)对其空间变化规律进行分析,利用LMDI模型(对数平均迪式分解模型)对其驱动因素进行分解。【结果】1990-2016年间福建省的农业碳排放整体呈下降趋势,由598.32万t下降到546.49万t,年均下降0.35%。9个地级市农业碳排放量差异较大,其中南平市农业碳排放量最大,达到103.64万t;厦门市农业碳排放量最小,仅有5.29万t。从福建省农业碳排放的内部结构看,农用物资与农地利用所带来的碳排放为主要碳源,占农业碳排放总量的43.85%;其次是稻田甲烷所带来的碳排放,占比43.04%。在驱动因素方面,碳排放强度效应、就业结构效应和人口总数效应是全省农业碳排放下降的正向驱动因素,农业碳排放分别减少35.00万t、8.86万t和75.72万t;而农业收入效应是农业碳排放下降的负向驱动因素,农业碳排放增加了40.45万t。【结论】近年来福建省农业碳排放量整体减少,未来还可进一步采取措施,有效促进农业碳减排和低碳农业发展。

【Objective】Spatial and temporal dynamics of and the driving forces behind the agricultural carbon emissions in Fujian were studied.【Method】The agricultural production data from the Statistical Yearbook of Fujian Province(1990-2016)were compiled to calculate the agriculture carbon emissions,the Geographic Information System(ArcGIS)applied to analyze the spatial variations,and the logarithmic average di-model(LMDI model)employed to decipher the factors that governed the outcomes.【Result】Overall,the total emission in the province was on a downward trend from 1990 to 2016 with at an annual decline rate of 0.35%from 598.32×10^4 t to 546.69×10^4 t.The emissions differed significantly among 9 prefecture-level municipalities.Nanping had the greatest amount that reached 103.64×10^4 t,and Xiamen the least at 5.29×10^4 t.Materials and land for agricultural operations were the major pollution sources,accounting for 43.85%of the total emissions.They were followed by the CH 4 emissions from paddy fields which contributed 43.04%.The factors that drove the emission reduction included carbon intensity,employment structure and local population,each contributed 35.00×10^4 t,8.86×10^4 t and 75.72×10^4 t,respectively,to the total.In contrast,the income from agricultural activities was a negative driving force that added 40.45×10^4 t to the total emissions.【Conclusion】In recent years,the agricultural carbon emissions in Fujian have been reduced overall,and Fujian can further take measures to effectively reduce agricultural carbon emission and to promote low-carbon agriculture development.