重庆市房地产金融风险预警的实证研究

An Empirical Study on the Early Warning of Real Estate Financial Risk in Chongqing

近两年重庆市房价持续上升,房地产市场异常活跃,为防范地产行业金融风险的发生,本文从与国民经济关系、行业发展水平、信贷资金安全三个层面出发,构建了重庆市房地产金融风险预警体系,并利用功效系数法测算出重庆市2000-2017年综合预警值,结果表明近十年来重庆市房地产业金融风险相对较小,但近期有风险扩大的趋势,需引起重视。

In the past two years, housing prices in Chongqing have continued to rise, and the real estate market is extremely active. In order to prevent the financial risks of the real estate industry, this paper constructs a financial risk early warning system for Chongqing real estate from three aspects: national economic relations, industry development level and credit fund security, and uses the efficiency coefficient method to calculate the comprehensive warning value of Chongqing from 2000 to 2017. The results show that the financial risk of the real estate industry in Chongqing has been relatively small in the past decade, but the trend of risk is expanding in the future, so it needs to be paid attention to.