对外开放能否推动长江经济带产业结构升级?——基于技术创新中介效应的实证研究

Could Opening-up Promote the Upgrading of the Industrial Structure of the Yangtze River Economic Belt?——An Empirical Study Based on the Mediating Effect of Technological Innovation

构建静态面板模型和动态面板GMM模型,采用2010—2016年长江经济带11省市的面板数据,以技术创新为中介变量探讨贸易对外开放、资本对外开放对长江经济带产业结构升级产生的影响。实证结果表明:二者对产业结构升级的影响存在异质性,即贸易对外开放因抑制技术创新而对产业结构升级产生负向影响,资本对外开放因促进技术创新而对产业结构升级产生正向影响。此外,在控制变量中,政府干预、人力资本与城镇化对产业结构升级具有正向效应,而固定资产投资具有负向效应。最后,基于实证结果,从提升对外贸易结构、提高招商引资质量、加强自主创新、深化结构改革等方面,提出推动长江经济带产业结构升级的若干建议。

By constructing a static panel model and a dynamic panel GMM model with technological innovation as the intermediary variable and employing the panel data of 11 provinces and cities in the Yangtze River Economic Belt from 2010 to 2016,this paper discusses the influence of opening-upof trade and capital on the upgrading of industrial structure of the Yangtze River Economic Belt.The empirical results show that the influence of the two factors on the upgrading of industrial structure is heterogeneous.The opening up of trade has a negative impact on upgrading of industrial structure because of suppressing technological innovation whereas the opening up of capital has a positive effect on upgrading of industrial structure by promoting technological innovation.Besides,among the control variables,government intervention,human capital and urbanization have a positive effect on industrial structure upgrading,while fixed asset investment has a negative effect.Finally,based on the empirical results,some suggestions for promoting the upgrading of industrial structure of the Yangtze River Economic Belt are proposed in terms of improving the structure of foreign trade,improving the quality of investment,strengthening independent innovation,and deepening structural reforms.