新疆生产建设兵团2001—2015年生态足迹及其驱动力因子分析

Analysis to ecological footprints and its driving forces of Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps from 2001 to 2015

基于生态足迹模型对新疆生产建设兵团2001—2015年生态足迹进行计算,并运用偏最小二乘回归以及Pearson相关分析两种方法分析生态足迹的经济社会驱动力因子。结果显示:2001—2015年,兵团人均生态足迹从2.765 hm^2·cap^(-1)增加到14.329 hm^2·cap^(-1),人均生态承载力保持较低稳定状态,人均生态赤字从0.355 hm^2·cap^(-1)增加到11.670 hm^2·cap^(-1)。表明兵团经济快速增长过程中,生态压力持续增加,可持续发展面临挑战。人均GDP、第二产业增加值、城镇居民人均可支配收入、社会消费品零售总额、城镇化水平、第一产业增加值对兵团人均生态足迹变化有显著正向驱动作用,而万元GDP生态足迹、第三产业增加值比重则表现出对人均生态足迹相对较弱的逆向驱动作用。调整产业结构以及保证生态用水是降低生态足迹,提高生态承载力,实现兵团可持续发展的有效途径。

Based on ecological footprint model,the ecological footprint of the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps(XPCC)was calculated from 2001 to 2015.Its social and economic driving forces were analyzed using partial least-squares regression and Pearson correlation methods.The results showed that the per capita ecological footprint of XPCC increased from 2.765 hm^2·cap^-1 to 14.329 hm^2·cap^-1,and the per capita ecological carrying capacity remained stable.The per capita ecological deficit increased from 0.355 hm^2·cap^-1 to 11.670 hm^2·cap^-1,which indicated the ecological pressure continued to rise and the sustainable development had been facing challenge during the period of rapid economic growth.Per capita GDP,the added value of second industry,average per capita disposable income total retail sales of consumer goods,urbanization level and the added value of the primary industry had significantly positive driving effect to per capita ecological footprint.The proportion of the added value of the third industry and per ten thousand Chinese Yuan GDP had a relatively weak negative effect to per capita ecological footprint.Adjusting industrial structure and adding water for ecological usage was an effective way for XPCC to reduce ecological footprint,improve ecological carrying capacity and achieve sustainable development.