基于系统动力学的十堰市水资源供需特性研究

Research on Characteristics of Water Supply and Demand in Shiyan City Based on System Dynamics

以十堰市为研究对象,基于系统动力学原理,运用Vensim软件,在分析十堰市水资源开发利用现状的基础上,综合考虑社会、经济、水资源等子系统,建立十堰市水资源供需系统动力学模型,定量模拟研究区内水资源供需状况。设计了3种情境下水资源开发利用模拟方案,预测未来水资源的供需形势,进行研究区水资源供需特性分析。结果表明模拟期内十堰市水资源供需矛盾突出,按照现状发展,未来阶段内十堰市的水资源供需缺口逐步加大,而通过调整产业结构,提高各部门用水效率,提高水资源开发投资,水资源供需缺额降低。为保证十堰市水资源的可持续发展,建议提高社会各行各业的用水效率、节水水平和水资源重复利用率,同时加大水利投资,提高水资源开发利用率。

Taking Shiyan city as the research object,based on the principle of system dynamics,this paper established the dynamic model of water supply and demand in Shiyan city by considering the subsystems of society,economy and water resources,which was based on the analysis of the status quot of water resources development and utilization by using Vensim software.The model quantitatively simulated the supply and demand of water resources in the study area.The simulation plan for water resources development and utilization under three scenarios was designed to predict the supply and demand situation of water resources in the future,and analyzed the characteristics of water supply and demand in the study area.The results showed that the contradiction between water supply and demand is prominentduring the simulation period.According to the current situation,the gap between supply and demand o fwater resources would gradually increase in the future.The shortage of water supply and demand would be reduced by adjusting the industrial structure,improving the water use efficiency and increasing the investment in water resources development.In order to ensure the sustainable development of water resources in Shiyan city,it is suggested to improve the water use efficiency,the water-saving level and the water-reusing rate in society.While,increasing water conservancy investment and improving water resources development and utilization would be good ideas as well.