层次分析法探讨气候变化对一个国家脆弱性的影响

Impact of climate change on a country's vulnerability based on analytic hierarchy process

气候变化问题是典型的全球公共问题和非传统安全问题。本文利用层次分析法(AHP)和多元线性回归(MLR)技术提出了一种新的评估气候变化对国家脆弱性影响的方法。通过构造社会、政治、经济三大因素矩阵,计算气候影响前后国家脆弱性分数大小,并判断哪个因素对国家脆弱性影响最大,得出国家脆弱性等级分类。结果表明:气候变化会影响国家脆弱性,中等脆弱性的国家更可能受到影响,其中经济、政治相对社会因素对国家脆弱性影响较大,对于脆弱程度较高的国家,气候影响反而并不显著。

Climate change is a typical global public issue and non-traditional security issue.In this paper,a new method to evaluate the impact of climate change on national vulnerability is proposed by using Analytic Hierarchy Process(AHP)and Multiple Linear Regression(MLR)techniques.By constructing a matrix of social,political and economic factors,the national vulnerability scores before and after climate impact are calculated,and which factor has the greatest impact on the national vulnerability is judged.The classification of national vulnerability grades is obtained.The results show that climate change will affect the national vulnerability,and countries with moderate vulnerability are more likely to be affected.Among them,economic and political relative social factors have greater impact on the national vulnerability,while for countries with higher vulnerability,the climate impact is not significant.