西非海上天然气管道泄漏风险评估及水下隔离阀设置必要性研究

Leakage assessment of West African offshore natural gas pipeline and research on necessity of installing subsea isolation valve

针对西非海上某天然气外输设施是否需要安装水下隔离阀(SSIV),运用定量风险评估方法开展了立管泄漏场景识别、泄漏频率计算和泄漏后果(包括扩散、火灾和爆炸)分析,评估了有无SSIV两种工况下的资产损失和人员死亡风险。按照业主公司的风险矩阵,通过资产损失、人员死亡风险评估,结合成本收益分析,结果表明:安装SSIV的费用大约为150万欧元,而安装SSIV的收益现值仅为100万欧元,故得出不安装SSIV的结论。本文定量风险评估方法可以为今后类似海上油气开发项目评估安装SSIV必要性提供借鉴。

Aiming at whether the subsea isolation valve(SSIV)needs to be installed in a natural gas offloading facility in offshore West Africa,the quantitative risk assessment method is used to identify riser leakage scenarios,calculate leakage frequency and analyze leakage consequences(including dispersion,fire and explosion).Asset and life loss risk under two conditions with or without SSIV are evaluated.According to the risk matrix of the owner,the risk assessment results of asset and life loss and cost-benefit analysis show that the cost of installing SSIV is about 1.5 million Euros,while the net present value of the income of installing SSIV is only 1 million Euros.Therefore,it is concluded that SSIV will not be installed.The quantitative risk assessment method in this paper can provide a reference for the evaluation and installation of SSIV for similar offshore oil and gas development projects in the future.