利比亚民兵组织的历史透视与现状解析

An Analysis of the Libyan Militias

民兵组织长期存在于利比亚历史之中,它们的产生与各部落维护自身社会经济利益的诉求息息相关,它们既反映出利比亚地方部落离心倾向的恶性发展,也是利比亚宗教与世俗力量长期博弈的后果。利比亚民兵大致可以分为世俗性、宗教性及局限于地方部落的三类组织。各民兵组织的人数差异显著,本土人员来源较为单一、集中,同时还出现了数量巨大的外籍成员。各民兵组织的收入来源以境内收益为主,境外收益为辅,其中非法性收益占了很大的比例,具体包括石油及相关收益、武器走私、抢劫和绑架、非法移民、外部资助五个主要来源。由于利比亚民兵组织间的对抗,他们在自身势力范围内维持秩序的努力,无法产生放大和平的扩溢效应。利比亚民兵组织在与政府、外部支持者相互借势的过程中,已逐渐固化为当前乱局的既得利益者。某些民兵组织则被境外恐怖主义组织“接管”,成为一类恐怖主义组织。

Militias have been existed in Libya’s history for a long time.Their emergence is closely related to the demands of the tribes to maintain their social and economic interests.Militias does not only reflect the vicious development of the centrifugal tendencies of local tribes in Libya,but also the consequences of the long-term game between religious and secular forces in Libya.Libyan militias can be broadly classified into three categories:secular,religious and limited to the local tribes’affairs.There are significant differences in the number of people in militia groups.There is a single,centralized source of local personnel and a large number of expatriate members.The sources of income of the militias are based on domestic and external earnings,in which illicit income accounts for a large proportion.Their incomes include oil and related proceeds,arms smuggling,robbery and kidnapping,illegal migration and outside funding.As a result of the confrontationbetween Libyan militia groups,their efforts to maintain order within their sphere of influence cannot produce an spill-over effect that achieve peace.In the process of interacting with the government and external supporters,the Libyan militias have gradually solidified itself as a vested interest groups in current chaotic situation.Some militia groups are"taken over"by foreign terrorist organizations and become branches of terrorist organizations.