基于区间两阶段鲁棒优化模型的灌区水资源优化配置

Optimal Water Resources Planning Based on Interval-parameter Two-stage Robust Stochastic Programming Model

为避免由灌区水资源配置系统存在的诸多不确定因素导致的配水过程风险性,在区间两阶段随机规划方法的基础上加入了鲁棒优化方法,构建区间两阶段鲁棒优化模型,引入鲁棒系数表示系统风险,将系统风险体现在模型中,克服了系统风险不可控的不足。以三江平原牡丹江灌区为例,对灌区水资源进行优化配置,得到灌区多水源、多作物、不同鲁棒系数下的配水目标。结果表明:随着鲁棒系数增大,导致缺水量增加,系统稳定性增强,但成本也随之增加,系统经济性降低;当鲁棒系数为3时,缺水量不再增加,系统达到稳定的状态,此时系统的成本在[1. 903 27×10~9,2. 634 75×10~9]元之间变化。优化结果可为决策者提供决策空间,为农业水资源的合理配置提供技术支持。

The interval-parameter two-stage robust stochastic programming model(ITRM)was put forward for supporting optimization and management of water resources in Mudanjiang Irrigation District,Sanjiang Plain,which was in such a situation,with multi-water source,multi-crop and multi-robustness coefficient.The ITRM incorporated interval-parameter programming(IPP)and two-stage stochastic programming(TSP)with a robust optimization framework to deal with uncertainties.Compared with the traditional TSP,ITRM can overcome the deficiency of uncontrollable risk in system.The robustness coefficient was introduced to represent the system risk,which was effectively reflected in the model.Let the robust coefficient be 0,0.4,1,2,3 and 5,respectively.With the increase of robust coefficient,the feasibility of the model and the stability of the system were enhanced.It was a sufficient and effective balance between system cost and risk when the robustness coefficient was 3.A more stable allocation of water resources was generated and the system cost was between 1.903 27×10^9 RMB and 2.634 75×10^9 RMB.Based on this model,a series of scenarios under different levels of pre-allocation water was done and different degrees of water surplus and shortage were obtained correspondingly.All these results were valuable for watersaving irrigation agriculture and improving water use efficiency and economic value,and thus it provided a technical support for decision maker in reasonable allocation of agricultural water resources.