基于实测数据的概率积分法预计参数反演方法研究

Study on parameter inversion method of probability integration method based on observed data

目前,我国在对煤矿开采沉陷预计中使用最为广泛的方法是概率积分法。如何确定某一矿区合理的概率积分预计参数,进而对整个矿区开采沉陷进行准确的预计,一直是这一领域的研究热点。根据华北地区某矿地表移动观测站实测资料,以概率积分法预计公式为模型,借助Matlab软件强大的计算、绘图功能,实现了对概率积分法预计开采沉陷参数的反演。由反演结果与实测资料分析对比知,该方法合理可行,精度满足工程实际要求。

Probability integral method is the most widely used method for subsidence prediction in coal mining in China.How to determine the reasonable probability integral prediction parameters of a mining area,and then accurately to predict the mining subsidence of the whole mining area,that has been a research hotspot in this field.Based on the measured data of a mine surface movement observation station in north China,the prediction formula of probability integral method as the model and the powerful calculation and drawing function of Matlab software to realize the inversion of mining subsidence parameters predicted by probability integral method.According to the analysis and comparison of the inversion results and the measured data,the method was reasonable and feasible,and the accuracy met the actual engineering requirements.