双重困境、特朗普冲击与文在寅政府两强外交的逻辑

Dual Dilemmasl、Trump Shock and the Logic of the Two Great Powers Diplomacy of Moon Jae-in Administration

文在寅上台之初,面临内外交困的局面,在外交方面如何平衡与中美两强的关系至关重要。韩国是一个安全和经济自主性都比较低的国家,在安全和经济上对外部依赖较高,这也使得韩国面临联盟困境和选边困境的双重困境。特朗普执政以来,推行“美国优先”的内外政策,形成了“特朗普冲击”,这对于韩国所面临的双重困境都有影响。为了应对特朗普冲击,文在寅政府的两强外交运筹的基本逻辑是缓解双重困境,提升韩国的战略自主性,促进韩国经济利益和安全利益的更加周全。主要是弱化美国对朝动武引发的“被牵连”困境和不断安抚美国以弱化“被抛弃”困境。缓解选边困境则是通过低成本的方式改善中韩关系,减少中美竞争的负面影响。目前来看,文在寅政府的两强外交相对比较成功,有效缓解了韩国所面临的双重困境,不过未来仍存在一定的不确定性,其两强外交效果能否持续有待观察。

At the beginning, Moon Jae-in administration faced a situation of internal and external difficulties. It is of vital importance to balance the relations with China and the United States. As a country with relatively low security and economic autonomy, ROK is highly dependent on the outside world. Since Trump came into power, the implementation of “America First ”domestic and foreign policy guidance has shaped the Trump Shock, which has an impact on the dual dilemmas ROK faces. In response to Trump Shock, the basic logic of ROK s two great powers diplomatic operations is to ease the double dilemmas and promote more comprehensive economic and security interests in ROK. The basic logic for alleviating alliance dilemma is to reduce the “trapped” dilemma caused by the U.S. military intervention in the DPRK and constantly appease the United States to reduce the “abandoned dilemma”. The basic strategy for alleviating the taking-side dilemma is to improve the relations between China and ROK in a low-cost way and reduce the negative impact of the Sino-American competition. At present, Moon Jae-in government s two great powers diplomacy is relatively successful, which has greatly alleviated the double dilemma faced by ROK. However, in the future it also faces certain uncertainties, Which make the two diplomatic effects continue to exist.