“黑天鹅”事件与国际关系理论的预测危机

“Black Swan Events” and the Predictive Crisis of International Relations Theory

"黑天鹅"事件引发国际关系理论预测危机的逻辑机制是由内外两个维度上的因素互动导致的。内生层次上,国际关系理论在预测"黑天鹅"事件时无法克服所面对的天然性内在矛盾;外生层次上,"黑天鹅"事件亦在以其消极能量从多个方向不断向国际关系理论预测力施加反作用力。国际关系理论的内在缺陷与"黑天鹅"事件的外在阻力是影响国际关系理论预测的两大关键动因,它们之间的联动效应合力诱导了预测危机的屡屡显现。文章认为面对这一预测危机的现状,一方面要在预测失败的实践中不断修正和完善国际关系理论的预测功能,另一方面则需要以开放和非线性的思维模式审视国际关系发展演变的复杂性,同时在主观认知上要充分考虑"黑天鹅"事件发生的偶然性与非规律性特征。

The logic mechanism of which black swan events trigger the predictive crisis of international relations theory was drived by the interaction of factors in both internal and external dimensions.At the endogenous level,international relations theory cannot overcome natural inner contradictions when it predicts the black swan events;at the exogenous level,the black swan events also uses its own negative energy to continuously exert its counter force on the prediction of international relations theory from multiple directions.The inherent flaws in the international relations theory and the external resistance of the black swan events are two key agents affecting the prediction of international relations theory.The linkage effects between them have induced repeated crisis manifestations.Facing the current situation of predictive crisis,on the one hand,it is necessary to continuously correct and perfect the predictive function of international relations theory in the practice of predicting failure.On the other hand,it is required to examine the complexity of international relations'evolution with an open and non-linear thinking model,meanwhile,subjective cognition should fully consider the black swan events'accidental and non-regular characteristics.