中国煤炭供给价格弹性的估算与应用

Estimation and Application of China's Coal Price Elasticity of Supply

作为经济学基础分析工具,供给价格弹性成为分析市场化下中国煤炭市场的有效工具。根据煤种、产地、区域市场关联程度,构建主要产煤省份的炼焦煤和动力煤供给方程,并基于省份价格对全国价格的反应函数,运用GMM方法估算2011至2015年各地不同煤种供给的省内价格弹性、全国价格弹性和价格关联度。研究表明:中国煤炭工业已进入市场经济,价格在调控市场供需上发挥着重要作用;各地煤炭供给弹性系数存有显著差异,各地煤炭产业政策需因地制宜;全国价格对各省价格具有显著影响,各省炼焦煤市场的开放程度高于动力煤市场;全国煤炭价格指数为促进动力煤市场的开放统一仍发挥着重要作用。同时还说明了供给价格弹性的估算结果在可计算一般均衡模型、中国煤炭市场系统等理论建模以及在产量预测、产能退出规模核算等管理实践上的应用。

As a basic analysis tool in economics,the price elasticity of supply becomes effective when analyzing coal market-oriented industry in China.Based on coal typologies,production areas,and correlation degrees between inter-provincial markets,provincial supply equations and reaction function of provincial coal price to national price on coking and thermal coal in China were built.Provincial and national price elasticity and correlation of price on provincial coking and thermal coal in the period of 2011-2015 were estimated with the generalized method of moments(GMM).The results show that the coal market in China has entered into the market economy,and the price has played an important role in the regulation of supply and demand;the coal price elasticity of supply in each province is significantly different,and provincial coal industry policy needs to be adjusted according to local conditions;the national price has a significant influence on provincial prices,and the openness in coking coal market is higher than that in thermal coal;the national coal price index has positive effect on the openness and unification in the thermal coal market.The applications of price elasticity of supply were also presented in computable general equilibrium(CGE)model,the theoretical modeling of China coal market system,and management practices,such as the output prediction,the calculation of scale on capacity to be exited and so on.